Track record, unfiltered
Every settled pick — wins, losses, pushes. No cherry-picking. Graded at the recommended price.
EV-sized off Pinnacle's fair line. 418 staked picks · 451 passes (no edge). ½ Kelly doubles every stake of ¼ Kelly — same ROI%, bigger swings.
Performance by signal½ Kelly · 418 staked
Each pick counted once, under its strongest (primary) signal. This is the "no double-counting" view. Steam and Sharp Lead are stack-only confidence boosters in the current model — see the trail view below for their lift.
Performance by signal trail½ Kelly · 418 staked
Same picks, but counted under every signal that fired. A pick tagged underdog with a steam stack appears in both the Underdog and Steam rows. Use this to see how each strategy performs in isolation — including stack-only boosters like Steam and Sharp Lead.
These rows overlap on purpose. Adding them up double-counts — one pick can appear in several rows, and the model can also fire more than one position on the same game (moneyline, First 5, total). The honest denominator for this window is 858 distinct settled picks; the headline record above counts each pick once.
Signal performance over time
Cumulative units per signal — same trail semantics as above. A pick tagged with multiple signals contributes to every line. Watch for one signal quietly bleeding while another carries the bottom line.
Book × signal CLV
Average closing-line value per book, broken down by every signal in the trail. Higher CLV = you got a better price than where the line closed. Tells you which book to shop for which kind of pick.
| Book | Overall CLV | Reverse Price | Steam | Sharp Lead | Underdog | Consensus | pitcher_edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| espnbet | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| hardrockbet | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| fanatics | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| draftkings | +29¢n=3 | — | — | — | -20.5¢n=2 | +128¢n=1 | — |
| betfair_ex_eu | +25¢n=205 | +21.2¢n=26 | +25.8¢n=12 | +23.3¢n=16 | +24.4¢n=85 | +29.6¢n=68 | +29.6¢n=16 |
| betanysports | +24.3¢n=249 | +20.9¢n=34 | +21.6¢n=23 | +22.2¢n=23 | +24.1¢n=103 | +29.5¢n=77 | +31.6¢n=17 |
| lowvig | +21.2¢n=331 | +17.9¢n=70 | +20.8¢n=25 | +16.3¢n=38 | +22.6¢n=123 | +27.6¢n=87 | +29.8¢n=23 |
| betonlineag | +21.2¢n=334 | +17.9¢n=71 | +21.3¢n=26 | +16.3¢n=38 | +22.5¢n=125 | +27.7¢n=88 | +29.8¢n=23 |
| pinnacle | +15.8¢n=275 | +17.1¢n=44 | +22.8¢n=22 | -21.5¢n=30 | +23.8¢n=101 | +20.1¢n=90 | +29.6¢n=14 |
| matchbook | +12.7¢n=241 | +5.9¢n=34 | +25.4¢n=16 | -28.6¢n=31 | +23.5¢n=86 | +19.2¢n=76 | +29.4¢n=19 |
| fanduel | +12.6¢n=5 | — | — | — | -27¢n=3 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
Edge proof — CLV vs results
Picks that beat the closing line should outperform — that's the math of edge. Real numbers, no spin.
Clean vs conflict picks
When two signals disagree on the same game, are we still winning? Split of every settled pick by whether an opposing pick existed at the same time.
CLV trend
Rolling 20-pick average closing-line value. Above zero = we're consistently beating the market — the single best long-term edge metric.
Cumulative units½ Kelly cohort
Book leaderboard
These are the books whose price moves we followed when picks fired. Top book is the sharpest.
Where the edge lives
Same picks, sliced by the variables that matter. Shows you where the model is actually paying — and where it isn't.
Which side of the line we win on.
Whether the picked team is hosting or traveling.
ROI by price band — heavy chalk vs live dogs.
Does the model's confidence score actually predict ROI? (Confidence model v2 — May 2026)
Bigger sharp moves should mean stronger signal.
Weekday-sharp vs weekend-public-money — does the day matter?
Top teams (5+ settled). Sorted by units.
Recent settled picks
| Date | Pick | Signal | Odds | Line journey | Close | CLV | Result | Units | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 | Seattle Mariners ML vs New York Yankees Final 1-0 | underdog-2.4% EV | +134 | +143 | -16¢ | won | +1.42u | ||
| Aug 13 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML vs Miami Marlins Final 13-1 | rlm-2.3% EV | -110 | -120 | +22¢ | won | +0.85u | ||
| Aug 13 | Cleveland Guardians ML vs Detroit Tigers Final 0-3 | sharp_lead-1.2% EV | +107 | -110 | +41¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Aug 12 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML vs Miami Marlins Final 0-2 | sharp_lead-2.4% EV | -102 | -107 | +12¢ | lost | -1.70u | ||
| Aug 11 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Texas Rangers Final 1-4 | consensus-1.4% EV | +109 | -100 | +22¢ | lost | -1.84u | ||
| Aug 11 | San Francisco Giants ML vs Houston Astros Final 3-6 | underdog-2.4% EV | +135 | +136 | -2¢ | lost | -0.38u | ||
| Aug 11 | Philadelphia Phillies ML vs St. Louis Cardinals Final 6-5 | consensus-1.9% EV | -106 | -115 | +20¢ | won | +1.58u | ||
| Aug 11 | Baltimore Orioles ML F5 vs Minnesota Twins F5 1-2 | pitcher_edge-4.3% EV | -120 | -120 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 9 | Cleveland Guardians ML vs Chicago White Sox Final 3-5 | consensus-2.3% EV | +107 | -126 | +74¢ | lost | -2.76u | ||
| Aug 9 | Seattle Mariners ML F5 vs Tampa Bay Rays F5 1-2 | consensus-3.3% EV | -107 | -107 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 9 | Colorado Rockies ML vs St. Louis Cardinals Final 4-7 | underdog-2.4% EV | +149 | +147 | +3¢ | lost | -0.43u | ||
| Aug 9 | Kansas City Royals ML vs Chicago Cubs Final 2-10 | underdog-2.3% EV | +154 | +149 | +8¢ | lost | -0.42u | ||
| Aug 9 | Kansas City Royals ML F5 vs Chicago Cubs F5 2-4 | pitcher_edge-3.2% EV | +135 | +135 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 9 | Athletics ML vs Boston Red Sox Final 4-3 | underdog-3.2% EV | +217 | +192 | +27¢ | won | +2.21u | ||
| Aug 9 | Seattle Mariners ML vs Tampa Bay Rays Final 2-3 | consensus-2.3% EV | -115 | -137 | +43¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Aug 9 | Cleveland Guardians ML vs Chicago White Sox Final 3-6 | pitcher_edge+0.8% EV | -117 | -125 | +16¢ | lost | -2.47u | ||
| Aug 9 | Kansas City Royals ML vs Chicago Cubs Final 6-3 | underdog-1.6% EV | +145 | +137 | +14¢ | won | +0.86u | ||
| Aug 8 | Athletics ML vs Boston Red Sox Final 7-3 | underdog+0.6% EV | +206 | +244 | -36¢ | won | +0.30u | ||
| Aug 8 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Miami Marlins Final 0-7 | underdog-1.6% EV | +154 | +134 | +34¢ | lost | -2.06u | ||
| Aug 8 | Los Angeles Angels ML F5 vs Miami Marlins F5 0-7 | consensus-3.6% EV | +122 | +122 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 8 | Under 4.5 · Under vs Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres F5 total 7 · U4.5 ✗ | pitcher_edge+1.1% EV | +110 | — | — | lost | -0.49u | ||
| Aug 7 | Kansas City Royals ML vs Minnesota Twins Final 3-4 | pitcher_edge+1.6% EV | -113 | -128 | +31¢ | lost | -0.91u | ||
| Aug 7 | Kansas City Royals ML F5 vs Minnesota Twins F5 2-1 | pitcher_edge-3.8% EV | -135 | -135 | 0¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 6 | Seattle Mariners ML vs Detroit Tigers Final 0-11 | pinnacle_ev-1.5% EV | -124 | -115 | -19¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 6 | Toronto Blue Jays ML F5 vs Chicago Cubs F5 1-0 | pitcher_edge-4.3% EV | -120 | -120 | 0¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 6 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML F5 vs Milwaukee Brewers F5 2-4 | consensus-3.7% EV | +107 | +107 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 6 | San Diego Padres ML vs Arizona Diamondbacks Final 4-10 | consensus+4.5% EV | -105 | -135 | +62¢ | lost | -2.35u | ||
| Aug 6 | Milwaukee Brewers ML vs Pittsburgh Pirates Final 4-2 | consensus+1.4% EV | -118 | -126 | +16¢ | won | +0.70u | ||
| Aug 6 | Chicago White Sox ML vs Boston Red Sox Final 0-4 | rlm+1.9% EV | +113 | +119 | -13¢ | lost | -0.82u | ||
| Aug 6 | New York Mets ML vs Cleveland Guardians Final 6-5 | sharp_lead+0.5% EV | -107 | -103 | -10¢ | won | +0.27u | ||
| Aug 6 | Athletics ML vs Cincinnati Reds Final 2-3 | underdog+1.5% EV | +131 | +135 | -7¢ | lost | -0.58u | ||
| Aug 5 | Toronto Blue Jays ML vs Houston Astros Final 5-4 | pinnacle_ev-28.2% EV | -103 | +199 | -173¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 5 | Under 4.5 · Under vs Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals F5 total 6 · U4.5 ✗ | pitcher_edge+2.9% EV | +110 | — | — | lost | -1.32u | ||
| Aug 5 | Kansas City Royals ML F5 vs Minnesota Twins F5 5-1 | pitcher_edge-3.4% EV | +130 | +130 | 0¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 5 | Atlanta Braves ML F5 vs Miami Marlins F5 1-0 | pitcher_edge-3.6% EV | -140 | -140 | 0¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 5 | Athletics ML F5 vs Cincinnati Reds F5 3-3 | pitcher_edge-3.9% EV | +113 | +113 | 0¢ | push | pass | ||
| Aug 5 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Baltimore Orioles Final 1-3 | rlm-1.2% EV | +118 | +129 | -22¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 4 | Toronto Blue Jays ML F5 vs Houston Astros F5 2-6 | pitcher_edge-4.3% EV | -100 | — | — | void | pass | ||
| Aug 4 | Over 4 · Over vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs F5 total 11 · O4 ✓ | consensus+4.7% EV | +100 | — | — | won | +2.35u | ||
| Aug 4 | Washington Nationals ML F5 vs Philadelphia Phillies F5 3-0 | pitcher_edge-3.6% EV | +120 | +120 | 0¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 2 | Kansas City Royals ML F5 vs Colorado Rockies F5 1-2 | pitcher_edge-4.0% EV | +110 | +110 | 0¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Aug 2 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 3-0 | underdog+0.2% EV | +200 | +194 | +7¢ | won | +0.10u | ||
| Aug 2 | Cincinnati Reds ML vs Pittsburgh Pirates Final 10-2 | pinnacle_ev-1.9% EV | -146 | -129 | -30¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 2 | Toronto Blue Jays ML vs St. Louis Cardinals Final 1-5 | consensus+1.3% EV | -119 | -129 | +20¢ | lost | -0.76u | ||
| Aug 2 | Washington Nationals ML F5 vs Atlanta Braves F5 2-3 | pitcher_edge | -119 | -119 | 0¢ | lost | — | ||
| Aug 2 | Colorado Rockies ML vs Kansas City Royals Final 12-6 | consensus+2.6% EV | -109 | -115 | +13¢ | won | +1.28u | ||
| Aug 1 | Miami Marlins ML vs New York Mets Final 6-2 | sharp_lead-2.2% EV | +113 | +117 | -9¢ | won | pass | ||
| Aug 1 | Chicago White Sox ML vs Tampa Bay Rays Final 0-1 | underdog+0.8% EV | +157 | +149 | +13¢ | lost | -0.25u | ||
| Aug 1 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 2-6 | rlm+2.9% EV | +158 | +150 | +12¢ | lost | -0.91u | ||
| Aug 1 | Los Angeles Angels ML F5 vs Milwaukee Brewers F5 2-6 | consensus-3.1% EV | +140 | +140 | 0¢ | lost | pass |
Why you can trust these numbers
- • Every pick is locked at first pitch — recommendation, odds, and reasoning can't change after a game starts.
- • All settled picks are public, including premium ones, after the game ends. No hiding losers.
- • Graded at the recommended price (1 unit), so the units number is what you'd have done following along.
- • CLV is calculated against the line at the close of betting — the industry standard for measuring long-term edge.