Track record, unfiltered
Every settled pick — wins, losses, pushes. No cherry-picking. Graded at the recommended price.
EV-sized off Pinnacle's fair line. 520 staked picks · 467 passes (no edge). ½ Kelly doubles every stake of ¼ Kelly — same ROI%, bigger swings.
Performance by signal½ Kelly · 520 staked
Each pick counted once, under its strongest (primary) signal. This is the "no double-counting" view. Steam and Sharp Lead are stack-only confidence boosters in the current model — see the trail view below for their lift.
Performance by signal trail½ Kelly · 520 staked
Same picks, but counted under every signal that fired. A pick tagged underdog with a steam stack appears in both the Underdog and Steam rows. Use this to see how each strategy performs in isolation — including stack-only boosters like Steam and Sharp Lead.
These rows overlap on purpose. Adding them up double-counts — one pick can appear in several rows, and the model can also fire more than one position on the same game (moneyline, First 5, total). The honest denominator for this window is 976 distinct settled picks; the headline record above counts each pick once.
Signal performance over time
Cumulative units per signal — same trail semantics as above. A pick tagged with multiple signals contributes to every line. Watch for one signal quietly bleeding while another carries the bottom line.
Book × signal CLV
Average closing-line value per book, broken down by every signal in the trail. Higher CLV = you got a better price than where the line closed. Tells you which book to shop for which kind of pick.
| Book | Overall CLV | Reverse Price | Steam | Sharp Lead | Underdog | Consensus | pitcher_edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| espnbet | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| hardrockbet | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| fanatics | +42.7¢n=3 | — | — | — | -16¢n=1 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
| draftkings | +29¢n=3 | — | — | — | -20.5¢n=2 | +128¢n=1 | — |
| betfair_ex_eu | +26.1¢n=257 | +21.1¢n=31 | +25.8¢n=12 | +24.5¢n=19 | +24.3¢n=106 | +32.2¢n=92 | +29.9¢n=17 |
| betanysports | +25¢n=313 | +18.3¢n=42 | +21.6¢n=23 | +22.9¢n=29 | +24.1¢n=129 | +31.6¢n=104 | +31.8¢n=18 |
| betonlineag | +21.9¢n=409 | +17¢n=82 | +21.3¢n=26 | +17.6¢n=47 | +22.5¢n=159 | +29.4¢n=114 | +30.6¢n=25 |
| lowvig | +21.9¢n=406 | +17¢n=81 | +20.8¢n=25 | +17.6¢n=47 | +22.6¢n=157 | +29.4¢n=113 | +30.6¢n=25 |
| pinnacle | +18¢n=333 | +16.4¢n=50 | +22.8¢n=22 | -16.4¢n=34 | +23.8¢n=126 | +23.9¢n=115 | +29.9¢n=15 |
| matchbook | +15.5¢n=307 | +6.8¢n=43 | +25.4¢n=16 | -20.6¢n=38 | +23.3¢n=114 | +23.8¢n=101 | +29.7¢n=20 |
| fanduel | +12.6¢n=5 | — | — | — | -27¢n=3 | +128¢n=1 | +16¢n=1 |
Edge proof — CLV vs results
Picks that beat the closing line should outperform — that's the math of edge. Real numbers, no spin.
Clean vs conflict picks
When two signals disagree on the same game, are we still winning? Split of every settled pick by whether an opposing pick existed at the same time.
CLV trend
Rolling 20-pick average closing-line value. Above zero = we're consistently beating the market — the single best long-term edge metric.
Cumulative units½ Kelly cohort
Book leaderboard
These are the books whose price moves we followed when picks fired. Top book is the sharpest.
Where the edge lives
Same picks, sliced by the variables that matter. Shows you where the model is actually paying — and where it isn't.
Which side of the line we win on.
Whether the picked team is hosting or traveling.
ROI by price band — heavy chalk vs live dogs.
Does the model's confidence score actually predict ROI? (Confidence model v2 — May 2026)
Bigger sharp moves should mean stronger signal.
Weekday-sharp vs weekend-public-money — does the day matter?
Top teams (5+ settled). Sorted by units.
Recent settled picks
| Date | Pick | Signal | Odds | Line journey | Close | CLV | Result | Units | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | Over 4 · Over vs Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves F5 total 5 · O4 ✓ | consensus+1.4% EV | +100 | — | — | won | +0.68u | ||
| Oct 1 | Under 6.5 · Under vs Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Total 11 · U6.5 ✗ | pitcher_edge+2.1% EV | +110 | — | — | lost | -0.93u | ||
| Sep 30 | New York Yankees ML vs Boston Red Sox Final 9-0 | pinnacle_ev+2.7% EV | -140 | -122 | -34¢ | won | +0.58u | ||
| Sep 30 | Houston Astros ML vs Chicago White Sox Final 3-6 | rlm-2.5% EV | -135 | -116 | -37¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Sep 27 | San Francisco Giants ML vs Los Angeles Dodgers Final 1-5 | rlm-3.1% EV | +220 | +212 | +8¢ | lost | -0.15u | ||
| Sep 27 | Chicago Cubs ML vs Boston Red Sox Final 6-2 | pinnacle_ev+2.5% EV | -120 | -113 | -15¢ | won | pass | ||
| Sep 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates ML vs Detroit Tigers Final 4-2 | pinnacle_ev+2.9% EV | -130 | +107 | -82¢ | won | pass | ||
| Sep 27 | St. Louis Cardinals ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 4-6 | underdog+2.7% EV | +197 | +184 | +15¢ | lost | -1.87u | ||
| Sep 27 | Colorado Rockies ML vs Chicago White Sox Final 2-4 | underdog-1.6% EV | +189 | +140 | +71¢ | lost | -0.40u | ||
| Sep 27 | Texas Rangers ML vs Minnesota Twins Final 4-6 | pinnacle_ev+2.6% EV | -118 | -110 | -17¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Sep 27 | Over 4.5 · Over vs Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins F5 total 6 · O4.5 ✓ | consensus+1.0% EV | +103 | — | — | won | +0.52u | ||
| Sep 27 | Kansas City Royals ML vs Cleveland Guardians Final 3-2 | consensus-2.8% EV | +119 | -106 | +58¢ | won | +3.57u | ||
| Sep 27 | Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs San Diego Padres Final 7-10 | consensus-0.9% EV | +113 | +108 | +11¢ | lost | -1.78u | ||
| Sep 27 | Philadelphia Phillies ML vs Tampa Bay Rays Final 1-12 | consensus-2.7% EV | -105 | -118 | +29¢ | lost | -1.91u | ||
| Sep 27 | Kansas City Royals ML vs Cleveland Guardians Final 5-11 | pitcher_edge-1.4% EV | +113 | -102 | +35¢ | lost | -2.21u | ||
| Sep 27 | St. Louis Cardinals ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 2-3 | underdog-2.0% EV | +162 | +140 | +35¢ | lost | -2.31u | ||
| Sep 26 | San Francisco Giants ML vs Los Angeles Dodgers Final 3-4 | underdog-4.5% EV | +265 | +242 | +18¢ | lost | -0.36u | ||
| Sep 26 | Los Angeles Angels ML vs Seattle Mariners Final 7-5 | consensus-2.4% EV | +115 | -100 | +35¢ | won | +2.74u | ||
| Sep 26 | Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs San Diego Padres Final 11-4 | underdog-2.4% EV | +122 | -105 | +62¢ | won | +1.84u | ||
| Sep 26 | Texas Rangers ML vs Minnesota Twins Final 2-10 | consensus-2.0% EV | -105 | -122 | +37¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Sep 26 | Cincinnati Reds ML vs Toronto Blue Jays Final 5-6 | pinnacle_ev+4.7% EV | +120 | +142 | -41¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Sep 26 | Washington Nationals ML vs New York Mets Final 7-6 | consensus-2.4% EV | +112 | -105 | +40¢ | won | +3.00u | ||
| Sep 25 | Baltimore Orioles ML vs New York Yankees Final 10-2 | consensus-2.8% EV | +108 | -108 | +38¢ | won | +2.49u | ||
| Sep 25 | Baltimore Orioles ML vs New York Yankees Final 10-2 | consensus-2.8% EV | +105 | -107 | +29¢ | won | +1.49u | ||
| Sep 25 | Boston Red Sox ML vs Chicago Cubs Final 4-3 | sharp_lead-3.3% EV | +109 | +103 | +14¢ | won | +2.25u | ||
| Sep 25 | Under 3 · Under vs Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox F5 total 6 · U3 ✗ | pitcher_edge+7.3% EV | +120 | — | — | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Sep 25 | Under 5.5 · Under vs Houston Astros @ Athletics F5 total 7 · U5.5 ✗ | consensus+2.5% EV | +110 | — | — | lost | -1.12u | ||
| Sep 24 | Philadelphia Phillies ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 1-4 | underdog-3.7% EV | +127 | +108 | +40¢ | lost | -1.99u | ||
| Sep 23 | Washington Nationals ML vs Detroit Tigers Final 4-2 | underdog-4.1% EV | +150 | +147 | +5¢ | won | +0.79u | ||
| Sep 23 | Houston Astros ML vs Seattle Mariners Final 7-0 | underdog-2.9% EV | +127 | +115 | +25¢ | won | +1.04u | ||
| Sep 23 | Miami Marlins ML vs Chicago Cubs Final 8-2 | underdog-1.4% EV | +187 | +187 | 0¢ | won | +1.46u | ||
| Sep 23 | Texas Rangers ML vs New York Mets Final 3-6 | pinnacle_ev+3.6% EV | -140 | -118 | -42¢ | lost | pass | ||
| Sep 23 | Boston Red Sox ML vs Cleveland Guardians Final 2-3 | sharp_lead-2.4% EV | -118 | -117 | -2¢ | lost | -0.74u | ||
| Sep 23 | Under 4 · Under vs Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies F5 total 4 · U4 · | pitcher_edge+0.8% EV | -110 | — | — | push | 0.00u | ||
| Sep 22 | Minnesota Twins ML vs San Francisco Giants Final 2-5 | consensus-2.9% EV | -110 | -127 | +36¢ | lost | -2.06u | ||
| Sep 22 | Washington Nationals ML vs Detroit Tigers Final 2-9 | rlm-2.3% EV | +136 | +118 | +35¢ | lost | -0.57u | ||
| Sep 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs New York Yankees Final 8-4 | sharp_lead-2.3% EV | -101 | -121 | +45¢ | won | +2.97u | ||
| Sep 20 | Under 5 · Under vs Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds F5 total 9 · U5 ✗ | consensus+2.0% EV | +105 | — | — | lost | -0.97u | ||
| Sep 20 | Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs New York Yankees Final 5-3 | underdog-2.4% EV | +140 | +144 | -7¢ | won | +0.69u | ||
| Sep 20 | Houston Astros ML vs Atlanta Braves Final 3-6 | consensus-1.2% EV | -112 | -131 | +39¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Sep 19 | Baltimore Orioles ML vs Milwaukee Brewers Final 0-1 | consensus-0.3% EV | +116 | -105 | +49¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Sep 19 | Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs New York Yankees Final 2-9 | sharp_lead-1.5% EV | +118 | -108 | +61¢ | lost | -3.00u | ||
| Sep 19 | Minnesota Twins ML vs Los Angeles Angels Final 3-0 | rlm-2.4% EV | -110 | -106 | -9¢ | won | +0.44u | ||
| Sep 19 | Texas Rangers ML vs Toronto Blue Jays Final 7-1 | underdog-2.4% EV | +122 | +121 | +2¢ | won | +0.84u | ||
| Sep 19 | New York Mets ML vs Philadelphia Phillies Final 6-3 | sharp_lead-2.2% EV | -110 | -123 | +28¢ | won | +1.28u | ||
| Sep 17 | Colorado Rockies ML vs San Diego Padres Final 2-9 | underdog-2.6% EV | +167 | +174 | -10¢ | lost | -2.10u | ||
| Sep 17 | Athletics ML vs Tampa Bay Rays Final 1-10 | underdog-2.8% EV | +252 | +232 | +17¢ | lost | -0.42u | ||
| Sep 17 | Cincinnati Reds ML vs Los Angeles Dodgers Final 2-8 | underdog-2.4% EV | +148 | +147 | +2¢ | lost | -0.29u | ||
| Sep 17 | Colorado Rockies ML vs San Diego Padres Final 3-9 | rlm-2.3% EV | +167 | +148 | +29¢ | lost | -0.32u | ||
| Sep 17 | Baltimore Orioles ML vs New York Mets Final 7-1 | underdog-2.0% EV | +127 | +101 | +57¢ | won | +3.81u |
Why you can trust these numbers
- • Every pick is locked at first pitch — recommendation, odds, and reasoning can't change after a game starts.
- • All settled picks are public, including premium ones, after the game ends. No hiding losers.
- • Graded at the recommended price (1 unit), so the units number is what you'd have done following along.
- • CLV is calculated against the line at the close of betting — the industry standard for measuring long-term edge.