Locked at first pitch

Track record, unfiltered

Every settled pick — wins, losses, pushes. No cherry-picking. Graded at the recommended price, 1 unit per pick.

Record
12-9-0
21 settled
Win rate
57.1%
Units
+4.71u
ROI
+22.4%
Avg CLV
-43¢
21 samples
CLV beat rate
9.5%
picks beating closing line
Settled picks
21
Pushes
0

Performance by signal

Same picks, broken out by which detection method fired them. Tells you which edge is actually paying.

Reverse Line Move
Line moves against the public
+2.32u
3-1 · 75% W
ROI +58%
Avg CLV -13¢ · 4 samples
Steam
Multiple sharp books in sync
No settled picks yet
Sharp Lead
Sharps move further than square
-0.59u
2-3 · 40% W
ROI -11.8%
Avg CLV -103¢ · 5 samples
Big Consensus Move
Whole market repricing 10pt+
+2.98u
7-5 · 58.3% W
ROI +24.9%
Avg CLV -27.9¢ · 12 samples

Edge proof — CLV vs results

Picks that beat the closing line should outperform — that's the math of edge. Real numbers, no spin.

Beat the close
Need more samples
CLV positive — got a better price than the market closed at
+2.15u
Record
2-0
Win rate
100%
ROI
+107.5%
2 settled picks
Worse than close
CLV negative — line moved against the pick
+0.50u
Record
6-6
Win rate
50%
ROI
+4.2%
12 settled picks

CLV trend

Rolling 20-pick average closing-line value. Above zero = we're consistently beating the market — the single best long-term edge metric.

-43¢
avg · 9.5% beat close

Cumulative units

Book leaderboard

These are the books whose price moves we followed when picks fired. Top book is the sharpest.

Need at least 5 settled picks per book to appear here.

Where the edge lives

Same picks, sliced by the variables that matter. Shows you where the model is actually paying — and where it isn't.

Favorites vs underdogs

Which side of the line we win on.

Not enough data yet.
Home vs away

Whether the picked team is hosting or traveling.

Not enough data yet.
By odds range

ROI by price band — heavy chalk vs live dogs.

Not enough data yet.
By confidence band

Does the model's confidence score actually predict ROI?

Not enough data yet.
By line-move size

Bigger sharp moves should mean stronger signal.

Not enough data yet.
By team

Top teams (5+ settled). Sorted by units.

Need 5+ settled picks per team.

Recent settled picks

DatePickSignalOddsLine journeyCloseCLVResultUnits
May 12Atlanta Braves ML vs Los Angeles Dodgersconsensus+1Open +104 → Pick +1 → Close -104-1040¢lost-1.00u
May 12St. Louis Cardinals ML vs San Diego Padresconsensus+8Open +116 → Pick +8 → Close +122+1220¢lost-1.00u
May 12Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs New York Metsrlm-5Open +113 → Pick -5 → Close +111+1110¢lost-1.00u
May 12Milwaukee Brewers ML vs New York Yankeesconsensus-8Open +112 → Pick -8 → Close +105+1050¢won+1.05u
May 12Washington Nationals ML vs Miami Marlinssharp_lead+7Open +125 → Pick +7 → Close +125+1250¢won+1.25u
May 12Atlanta Braves ML vs Los Angeles Dodgersconsensus-1Open +143 → Pick -1 → Close +163+1630¢won+1.63u
May 12Houston Astros ML vs Cincinnati Redsconsensus-75Open +112 → Pick -75 → Close +113+1130¢won+1.13u
May 10Houston Astros ML vs Cincinnati Redsconsensus+2Open +107 → Pick +2 → Close —void0.00u
May 10Baltimore Orioles ML vs Athleticsrlm-4Open +100 → Pick -4 → Close —void0.00u
May 10Tampa Bay Rays ML vs Boston Red Soxconsensus+8Open +109 → Pick +8 → Close —void0.00u
May 10Arizona Diamondbacks ML vs New York Metsconsensus-101Open +104 → Pick -101 → Close -102-102+2¢won+0.99u
May 10Milwaukee Brewers ML vs New York Yankeessharp_lead+116Open +127 → Pick +116 → Close +115+115+2¢won+1.16u
May 10Chicago White Sox ML vs Seattle Marinersconsensus-139Open +119 → Pick -139 → Close +113+113-112¢won+0.72u
May 10Texas Rangers ML vs Chicago Cubsrlm+103Open +119 → Pick +103 → Close +115+115-27¢won+1.03u
May 10Colorado Rockies ML vs Philadelphia Philliesconsensus+149Open +165 → Pick +149 → Close +159+159-16¢lost-1.00u
May 10Washington Nationals ML vs Miami Marlinssharp_lead-374Open +136 → Pick -374 → Close +145+145-381¢lost-1.00u
May 10Houston Astros ML vs Cincinnati Redsconsensus+121Open +136 → Pick +121 → Close +140+140-36¢lost-1.00u
May 10Athletics ML vs Baltimore Oriolesconsensus-138Open +104 → Pick -138 → Close +106+106-94¢won+0.72u
May 9St. Louis Cardinals ML vs San Diego Padresrlm+120Open +129 → Pick +120 → Close +127+127-14¢won+1.20u
May 9Detroit Tigers ML vs Kansas City Royalssharp_lead-119Open +129 → Pick -119 → Close +129+129-107¢lost-1.00u
May 9Chicago White Sox ML vs Seattle Marinersconsensus-103Open +120 → Pick -103 → Close +119+119-51¢lost-1.00u
May 9Tampa Bay Rays ML vs Boston Red Soxsharp_lead+105Open +114 → Pick +105 → Close +118+118-29¢lost-1.00u
May 9Athletics ML vs Baltimore Oriolesrlm+109Open +118 → Pick +109 → Close +114+114-11¢won+1.09u
May 9Colorado Rockies ML vs Philadelphia Philliesconsensus+174Open +196 → Pick +174 → Close +197+197-28¢won+1.74u

Why you can trust these numbers

  • • Every pick is locked at first pitch — recommendation, odds, and reasoning can't change after a game starts.
  • • All settled picks are public, including premium ones, after the game ends. No hiding losers.
  • • Graded at the recommended price (1 unit), so the units number is what you'd have done following along.
  • • CLV is calculated against the line at the close of betting — the industry standard for measuring long-term edge.
Read the full methodology →