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Session · ·Books polled every 5m
Markets open
Live · MLB Sharp Money Terminal

Follow the sharp money.
Beat the close.

We poll dozens of sportsbooks every five minutes, isolate the highest-EV setups that consistently beat the public, and grade every pick at the price you would have actually gotten. No vibes, no parlays, no hidden record.

60 picks public51.7% win rateCLV-gradedLocked at first pitch
01

We watch every book

Dozens of sportsbooks polled every 5 minutes. Sharp books, square books, offshore — full game, First-5, ML and Totals.

02

We isolate sharp moves

Five mathematically-defined edges: underdog value, Pinnacle EV, reverse price moves, big consensus repricing, and pitcher matchup edge.

03

You get the pick

Locked at first pitch and graded at the price you would have gotten. Every result public — wins, losses, pushes.

NewBuilt for the books you actually use

Only see picks your books actually carry.

No Pinnacle? Stuck with Bovada, DraftKings, or FanDuel only? Pick your books in Settings and the board hides anything your books don't post — at the exact line you can actually bet. No more chasing prices you can't get.

01

Pick your books

Choose from 15+ sportsbooks in Settings — Bovada, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and more.

02

Filter the board

Flip on 'My books only' and the picks board only shows plays available at your exact line, on a book you have.

03Soon

SMS alerts — coming soon

Get a text the moment a model pick fires on one of your books. Never miss a number again.

A note on the record: Our public win rate, units, and ROI are graded at the best number the model found across all books at pick time. Your personal results will depend on which books you have and when you bet — that's why we built the filter.

The LabWhere we're at · live snapshot

Every pick is a data point. We're reverse-engineering the entire betting market.

The model fires every day — moneylines, first 5, totals, underdogs, pitcher mismatches, sharp-side leads. Every result gets logged and bucketed by signal. As the sample grows, patterns surface: which signals print, which ones bleed, which combinations stack into a real edge. That's where LineDrive Premium comes in — the composite score is our first attempt at the answer.

Sample size · path to v1 strategy674 / 1000 settled · ETA ~4 weeks
Picks graded
674
Days live
52
Pace / day
13
Overall win %
47.4%

Target: 1000 settled picks and 150+ per signal. That's roughly where each bucket tightens to ±8% confidence and we can start cutting signals that don't hold up. We're 326 picks away.

What's winning · what's losinglive · all-time
Consensus
102W · 105L · n=207
49.3%
Marginal
Pitcher edge
95W · 111L · n=206
46.1%
Marginal
model_edge
51W · 71L · n=122
41.8%
Bleeding
Underdog value
50W · 56L · n=106
47.2%
Marginal
Reverse line move
32W · 32L · n=64
50%
Watching
Sharp lead
20W · 17L · n=37
54.1%
Edge
Steam (retired)
7W · 17L · n=24
29.2%
Too early
pinnacle_ev
2W · 2L · n=4
50%
Too early
Vertical line = 52.4% break-even at −110. Anything left of it is losing money long-term, no matter how many wins it has.
Discovery engine · winning combosfloor 30+ picks · nightly
Still collecting. No feature combo has cleared the 30-pick floor yet.
674 settled overall · engine reports findings only when a combo has enough decided bets to mean something.
Engine sweeps every 1-, 2-, and 3-feature combination across signals, markets, pitcher edge, price tier, line move, and confidence. Only combos with 30+ settled picks are reported. Findings are observations, not auto-promoted into the model yet.
Now
Collect & log

Every pick is tagged with its signals, closing line, weather, pitcher edge, and book prices. 674 graded so far across 8 signal buckets.

Activein progress
Mine & weight

Discovery engine sweeps every signal × market × pitcher edge × price × line-move combo nightly. Combos clearing 30 settled picks get reported below — winning recipes and anti-patterns both.

Goal
Find the hole

Once each bucket clears the confidence threshold, the model graduates from 'firing signals' to a tested, weighted strategy — only picks that survive every filter make the board.

Can we actually find the hole? Honest answer: not a single magic number — but a stacked filter that quietly bleeds the market is absolutely possible, and it's exactly how every long-term winning syndicate operates. The only way there is sample size, transparency, and killing what doesn't work. That's what this page is.

Public track record · last 30 days · ½ Kelly
Full record →

Every settled pick is published — wins and losses. No cherry-picking. Sized by edge off Pinnacle's fair line (¼ or ½ Kelly) — we never bet a flat 1u, which loses money on no-edge tickets.

Units
+0.00u
·
Win rate
0.0%
·
ROI
+0.0%
·
CLV
+0.0¢
Equity · cumulative units60 settled picks
Last graded 11h ago·Auto-graded from official MLB results + closing lines
Why we don't bet a flat 1 unit

After months of testing across our full published record, a flat 1-unit bet on every pick was a net loser. The exact same picks sized by Kelly were profitable. So we stopped betting flat units.

Flat 1u
−6.6u

Months of testing, every pick at one flat unit — including no-edge tickets — net loser across our published record.

¼ / ½ Kelly
+12% ROI

Same picks, sized by edge off Pinnacle's fair line. Kelly stakes more on bigger edges and passes when there's none.

That's why every stake on this site is ¼ or ½ Kelly, never a flat unit. Same ROI% either way — ½ just doubles the size.

How sizing works →
Top signal · live Updating
0
Standby
No live signals right now

Picks fire when sharp books and square books disagree by enough to matter. Sit tight — the board updates every 60 seconds.

Today's featured matchup · free previewFull breakdown
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick · Chicago White Sox ML +113 · 92% conviction
AwayL10 5-5
Chicago White Sox
43-39
SP
Sean Burke
3.71 ERA · 1.21 WHIP
HomeL10 4-6
Baltimore Orioles
39-46
SP
Shane Baz
4.31 ERA · 1.38 WHIP
ConditionsOriole Park at Camden Yards
Premium intel includes
  • · Injury reports & lineups
  • · Bullpen fatigue tracker
  • · Park factors + wind impact

How the model thinks

Read the method →
01

Underdog value

Live dogs +120 or longer where Pinnacle's fair price implies positive EV. Our most profitable signal in the v7 calibration.

02

Pinnacle EV edge

We de-vig Pinnacle's line to get a true probability, then only fire when the market price beats it by 3% or more.

03

Reverse price moves

Public hammers one side, sharp books move the OTHER way. Classic fade-the-square tell.

04

Big consensus moves

Every book moves the same way by 10+ cents — the market itself is repricing the game, no public/sharp split needed.

05

Pitcher edge

Starter z-scores on ERA, WHIP, and K/9 vs the opposing arm. Boosts confidence when the matchup decisively favors one side.

Steam and Sharp Lead activity boost confidence when they stack on top of the primary signals above — they no longer fire as standalone picks in Model v7. Every signal runs on all four markets we cover: Full-Game ML, First-5 ML (innings 1–5, no bullpen risk), Full-Game Totals, and First-5 Totals.

Common questions

See pricing →
Is this AI picks or real sharp signals?

Real signals. Five mathematically-defined edges: underdog value, Pinnacle EV, reverse price moves, big consensus moves, and pitcher matchup edge. No vibes.

How do I trust the track record?

Every settled pick is public — wins, losses, pushes, voids. Locked at first pitch. CLV shown for each pick so you can verify we beat the close.

Do I get a free trial?

Yes. 7 days free on Pro Monthly or Pro Yearly. Cancel any time before day 8 and you're not charged.

Why only MLB?

162 games per team, dense data, soft books. We do one market well rather than many poorly.

Open the terminal

7-day free trial. Cancel anytime. Less than the price of a single losing bet.