How it works

Every few minutes we pull moneyline odds from dozens of US sportsbooks and split them into two camps:

• Sharp books — Pinnacle, BetOnline, LowVig, Matchbook, Betfair Exchange. These books take big action from professional bettors and move their lines based on respected money.
• Square books — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars. These shape lines around the public, which means their numbers often lag where pros think the price should be.

When sharp and square books disagree, that's where the edge lives.

Every line is compared to where it opened and to the consensus on the other side of the market. Picks fire when one of four signals trips:

• Reverse Line Move — the public is hammering one side but sharp books are moving the line the other way. Strongest signal we track.
• Steam — three or more sharp books move the same direction within minutes. Syndicate money hitting the market in coordination.
• Sharp Lead — sharp books moved the line meaningfully more than square books. Pros are pricing in something the public hasn't caught yet.
• Consensus — both sharp and square books moved together by 15+ points. Lower-conviction signal — usually news-driven.

Each pick is tagged with its signal, a confidence score, and the reasoning behind it. The recommended price is the best price available across our tracked books at the moment the signal fired.

• Picks are locked at first pitch. After the game starts, the recommendation, odds, signal, and reasoning cannot be changed. Only the result and grading fields update.
• Settled picks become public — every premium pick is visible to anyone after the game ends, so there's no way to hide losers.
• Profit is tracked in units at the recommended price, 1u per pick. The unit number is what you'd have if you'd followed along at our price.
• CLV (closing-line value) compares the recommended price to the closing line. Beating the close consistently is the standard measure of long-term edge.
• If a game is postponed or a pick is voided, it counts as a push (0u).