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Overall performance30D · All· ½ Kelly
Auto-refresh 60s
Units
0.00u
ROI
0.0%
Win rate
0%
Bets placed
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pushes
0
Performance
0.00u over 30D
Stake sizing
Stakes are Kelly-sized off Pinnacle EV — ¼ Kelly (default) or ½ Kelly — and say pass on no-edge picks. Flat 1u is available for tracking but isn't recommended. This is a tracker, no wager required.

½ Kelly sizes each pick off Pinnacle's fair line and skips no-edge picks. Backtest: +12% ROI vs flat 1u — which we don't recommend.

Why we don't bet a flat 1 unit

After months of testing across our full published record, a flat 1-unit bet on every pick was a net loser. The exact same picks sized by Kelly were profitable. So we stopped betting flat units.

Flat 1u
−6.6u

Months of testing, every pick at one flat unit — including no-edge tickets — net loser across our published record.

¼ / ½ Kelly
+12% ROI

Same picks, sized by edge off Pinnacle's fair line. Kelly stakes more on bigger edges and passes when there's none.

That's why every stake on this site is ¼ or ½ Kelly, never a flat unit. Same ROI% either way — ½ just doubles the size.

How sizing works →
Strategy · ranked by units, live
ALL
every signal
LINEDRIVE ★
our composite — cream of the crop
REVERSE PRICE
sharps fade public
STEAM
booster · syndicate flow
SHARP LEAD
booster · sharps > squares
CONSENSUS
everyone agrees
PITCHER EDGE
starter advantage
PREMIUM
highest conviction
UNDERDOG
dog tightening
FIRST 5
no bullpen risk
TOTALS
over / under
⚠ CONFLICTS
opposing signals · 1 game
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How the board works

We poll dozens of sportsbooks every five minutes and split them into sharp books (Pinnacle, BetOnline, LowVig, Matchbook, Betfair Exchange) and square books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM). When those groups disagree, that's our edge. Each pick is tagged with the signal that triggered it.

LINEDRIVE ★
LineDrive Premium: our proprietary composite score blends signal type, Pinnacle EV, pitcher edge, line-move agreement, and confidence into a single 0–100 rating. The ★ goes to the highest-conviction plays — almost always full-game sharp-money signals (underdog tightening, RLM, consensus) that beat the closing line. Only picks above the strict live cutoff that didn't lose to the close get the ★.
REVERSE PRICE
Public hammers one side, sharp books move the other way. Classic contrarian sharp signal — a proxy for true RLM without needing paid bet-percentage data.
STEAM
3+ sharp books move together within minutes — coordinated syndicate action. In Model v7 this only boosts confidence on a primary signal, never fires alone.
SHARP LEAD
Sharp books moved materially more than square books — informed money is leading the line. In Model v7 this only boosts confidence on a primary signal, never fires alone.
CONSENSUS
Sharp + square books moved together by 15+ pts. Broad agreement across the market — lower-conviction, usually news-driven.
PITCHER EDGE
Composite ERA/WHIP/K-9 edge ≥ 0.70 between the probable starters. Fires on its own — especially on First 5, where the starter dominates — and stacks on top of primary signals on full game.
PREMIUM
Highest-conviction tier. Same signals, stricter thresholds — bigger sharp moves, higher Pinnacle EV, and a confidence ceiling required.
UNDERDOG
Opener was an underdog and the sharp price moved 10+ points shorter (e.g. +140 → +128). Big money is hitting the dog.
FIRST 5
First-5-innings moneyline. Settles on runs scored through the end of the 5th — eliminates bullpen blowups and isolates the starting-pitcher matchup.
TOTALS
Over/Under picks gated by Pinnacle no-vig EV ≥ +1.5%. Available for full game and First-5. We only post a totals pick when Pinnacle's fair line says the price is clearly +EV.
⚠ CONFLICTS
Two LineDrive signals fired on opposite sides of the same game (e.g. Nationals underdog ML + Braves Pitcher Edge). This is NOT a 'bet both sides' play — betting both sides of one game loses to the vig. The record here is the Kelly P/L of each fired leg, tracked so the Brain can learn whether conflict games are noise or genuine edge. Compare vs clean picks on the Track Record page.